Ukraine’s mortality rate exceeds birth rate fourfold

More than 73,000 babies were born in Ukraine during the first half of 2026, while more than 259,000 people died, according to data analysed by Opendatabotі .

Births by region, first half of 2026

Using data from Ukraine’s Justice Ministry, Opendatabot analysts found that the number of registered deaths increased for the first time in five years.

“Ukraine now records an average of about 12,000 births a month. By comparison, about 32,000 children were born each month 10 years ago,” the analysts stated.

Birth rates have fallen most sharply in regions close to the front line. The Donetsk Region (Oblast) has seen births decline threefold, while the Zaporizhzhia Oblast recorded a 23% decrease. At the same time, the number of newborns has also dropped significantly in relatively secure regions. Births fell by 20% in the Vinnytsia, Lviv and Ternopil Oblasts.

Kyiv recorded the highest number of births, accounting for one in every nine babies born in Ukraine.

The number of registered deaths increased by 4% compared with the same period last year. The Dnipropetrovsk Oblast recorded the highest number of deaths, with more than 28,000, accounting for one in every nine deaths nationwide. Kyiv, meanwhile, recorded the largest year-on-year increase in deaths, with an 11% rise.

Russian strikes also killed more than 1,300 civilians during the first half of 2026.

“Vital statistics have worsened significantly this year. On average, four people die for every child born. By comparison, the ratio was three to one last year,” the analysts said.

The most favourable demographic picture was recorded in the Rivne, Volyn and Zakarpattia Oblasts, where there were two deaths for every birth.

Deaths by region, first half of 2026

Ukraine’s population could shrink by another 5 million people by 2030 because of the war and fall to 22 million by the end of the century.

The full-scale war has also accelerated the development of reproductive technologies, which have become a priority for Ukraine’s healthcare system. Last year, the government introduced state-funded infertility treatment. Several families have already publicly shared their successful experience with the program, including a pair of teachers from the Lviv region and the widow of a Ukrainian servicemember.

Cover photo: UNICEF / Andriy Boiko

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