German political scientist and historian Andreas Umland warns of security risks for countries in Africa, South America and Asia due to Russia’s war against Ukraine
Political scientist and historian Andreas Umland warns that Russia’s actions in Ukraine could serve as a dangerous template for other revisionist powers, particularly threatening states in the Global South that lack protective alliances similar to NATO or the EU. Holding a lecture at the European University Viadrina in Frankfurt an der Oder on November 18, 2024, a renowned expert on Eastern Europe, Dr Andreas Umland, emphasised that such countries could become potential victims of similar aggressive actions.
Andreas UmlandDuring his lecture, Umland outlined five unique characteristics of Russia’s war against Ukraine that undermine the international security order. He highlighted how Russia has manipulated its position as a permanent UN Security Council member and violated international law.
Another dangerous precedent, according to Umland, is Russia’s distortion of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. As one of five official nuclear states, Russia is using its nuclear status to seize territory from Ukraine – a country that gave up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal in the 1990s in exchange for security guarantees.
“It has been documented that Russia used some of the carrier systems against Ukraine that Ukraine had previously handed over to Russia under the Budapest Agreement,” Umland explained. “They exploded in Ukraine – not with nuclear warheads but with conventional ones. However, these carrier systems were originally among those designed for nuclear warheads.”
According to the political scientist and historian, Russia’s manipulation of international institutions and nuclear threats has already undermined the post-1945 world order. This could lead to regional arms races and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, as countries might conclude that international law and organisations cannot guarantee their security.
“Some states around the world might decide they need to be clever like Russia and possess nuclear weapons, rather than naive like Ukraine, which gave up its nuclear arsenal. You can’t rely on international law, international organisations, or international solidarity,” Umland said.
To prevent this scenario, he stressed that Russia’s territorial annexations must be reversed, and its actions must face punishment, particularly for the genocidal tendencies demonstrated during the war.
By way of background, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine reported 574 civilian deaths and 3,082 casualties from Russian attacks between September and November 2024. September saw the highest civilian casualty rate since July 2022, driven by intensified Russian attacks in Donetsk Oblast and increased use of guided aerial bombs and drones.
The UN found that 93% of casualties occurred in Ukrainian-controlled territories, with Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts experiencing the heaviest fighting.
Previously, the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine outlined a timeline for the second Peace Summit.
