Majority of Ukrainians oppose trading Donbas for Western security guarantees

A survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on January 9-14, 2026, found that 54% of Ukrainians firmly reject the idea of the entire Donbas region being handed over to Russia in exchange for US and European security guarantees.

“The majority of Ukrainians – 54% – consider it categorically unacceptable to transfer the entire Donbas to Russia in exchange for security guarantees. At the same time, 39% are ready for such a concession, though most admit it is a difficult condition. Another 5% could not decide on their opinion,” the KIIS reported.

The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology notes that there are three roughly equally common explanations for Ukrainians’ rejection of the proposal to cede territories in eastern Ukraine. The percentages refer to respondents for whom this condition is categorically unacceptable or who could not provide a clear answer.

Firstly, 35% of respondents said that Russia would not stop and would continue attempting to wage war against Ukraine. Secondly, 33% indicated that Ukraine cannot simply give up its territories and the people who live there, citing the Constitution of Ukraine and the principle of territorial integrity.

Thirdly, 25% of respondents expressed doubt about the realism of Western security guarantees.

For reference: The KIIS conducted a survey via telephone interviewsі using a random sample of mobile phone numbers, with random number generation followed by statistical weighting, across all regions of Ukraine under government control between January 9 and 14, 2026. A total of 601 respondents aged 18 or older residing in government-controlled territory at the time of the survey were interviewed.

Residents of territories temporarily not under the control of the Ukrainian authorities were excluded from the sample, although some respondents were internally displaced persons who had moved from the occupied territories. The survey also did not include citizens who had left Ukraine after February 24, 2022.

Under normal circumstances, the statistical margin of error for such a sample, with a confidence level of 0.95 and taking into account a design effect of 1.3, does not exceed 5.3% for indicators close to 50%, 4.6% for indicators close to 25%, 3.2% for indicators close to 10%, and 2.4% for indicators close to 5%.